Decision time

What does Vista mean for Mac market share? Depends who you ask.

There seems to be a bit of disagreement over Vista’s launch and what it means for Mac market share.

Surprise!

According to Information Week, at least two analysts think it’s an opportunity for Apple.

“We think Vista is good for Apple,” ThinkEquity Partners financial analyst Jonathan Hoopes says in an e-mail. “As people upgrade their PCs, we expect them to increasingly consider the Mac alternative.”

That’s pretty much what the Macalope’s been saying. Vista forces many PC users into a buying decision.

But Paul Thurrott last week advised against such irrational exuberance.

In fact, there are reasons to believe that PC sales will grow dramatically in this very quarter because of Vista’s release. So it’s much more believable to think that Apple’s market share will actually be closer to 3 percent, or even less.

Twice!

However, I’d argue that Vista is quite obviously a threat to Apple because it further closes the gap between Windows and OS X in the eyes of the world (and, in reality, Vista exceeds OS X in many areas). And one might make the argument that Vista is good enough to cause some Mac users to switch back to Windows.

Up? Down? It’s all so confusing! Who are you gonna trust?

Well, if you’re the Macalope (and you’re not)*, you’re going to trust Hoopes. Sure, Thurrott’s right that no one should count their chickens before they hatch but this isn’t poultry, it’s prediction.

Now, the Macalope’s been burned before and, while it’s tempting, he’s resisting the urge to put any stock in his own anecdotal evidence that his relatives, friends and acquaintances are increasingly asking him “Now, tell me about these ‘Macs’ again?”.

Why? Because he tends to hang out with remarkably charming, erudite, witty, intelligent and sexy people. In other words, even if they’re currently PC users, they already fit nicely into the Mac user demographic, so they’re probably not representative of the PC-using population as a whole.

That said, there’s no denying that Microsoft made a strategic error in giving itself five years to get Vista out the door. Now it’s coming back to it’s customers and saying “Hey! Remember me?! I sold you that OS you’re using five years ago? Yeah, well, I’ve got a new one now and you’re going to have to buy a new machine to run it but I’ve got this great wizard that will step you through all the different versions to help you pick which one is right for you!”

It’s hardly irrational to speculate that Microsoft might get a few doors slammed in its face.

The Macalope will do Thurrott the courtesy of not even replying to his speculation about users switching from the Mac to Vista.

Because…

Please.

* Or are you?!

Free .Mac?

The Macalope dishes a Leopard rumor.

Many of you may be wondering where the Macalope was last week. Every so often the Macalope likes to “sharpen the saw” as Covey would say and go to a conference where he can learn and reenergize!

It’s almost always a mistake.

This time the Macalope decided to go to this big mythical creatures conference at the Sylvan Glen (“Sylvan Glen” sounds like a mythical place but it’s actually a Courtyard by Marriott out on Highway 80). The conference is supposed to be a way for us all to get together and talk about the issues of being mythical.

For example, it’s really hard to build up a line of credit. Imagine being a faerie and having to put your address as “Under the toadstool down by the babbling brook in the Great Green Wood” on a loan application. That doesn’t look good. It’s vague and somehow sounds like you spend most of your day stoned.

Anyway, there’s this big reception at the conference and the Macalope is talking to this magical half-elf with plus five hit points and — as will often happen when you have a head shaped like a Mac — the subject turns to Apple. As it turns out, the magical half-elf with plus five hit points is also a Mac user and has some familiars who provide him insider info on Apple.

So, we’re sipping our white wine and wearing our “HI, I’M the Macalope” and “HI, I’M the magical half-elf with plus five hit points” badges and he starts talking about portable home directories.

Unless you’ve been living under a toadstool down by the babbling brook in the Great Green Wood, you know that Leopard is going to feature some amazing advancements of this technology. But out of nowhere the magical half-elf with plus five hit points says “Of course .Mac will be free again to tie it all together.”

The Macalope did a white wine spit-take which probably surprised him a bit because he immediately started backing off that assertion, saying “Well, some part of it will be free.”

But it does make sense. It’s not like Apple’s making a ton of coin on it anyway and if Leopard is going to highlight the ability to access your home folder anywhere, what better way to make that possible for everyone than .Mac?

Uh, other than something that’s reliable.

Hmm.

"It was hell," he recalled

Michael Gartenberg returns to Jupiter Research.

Jupiter Research’s Microsoft’s Jupiter Research’s Michael Gartenberg is returning to the fold after a grueling…

…three-week stint at Microsoft.

The Macalope was truly dismayed to read last month that Gartenberg was leaving Jupiter as he is an excellent analyst and, well, he just hates to see anyone good go to Microsoft.

While Gartenberg may have quickly realized that the fit between plain-spoken analyst and spin-happy corporation is not a good fit, the Macalope also speculates that Jupiter made him a late but attractive counter-offer. In his premature Jupiter swan song, Gartenberg wrote:

My current job is great, my boss is wonderful and I was compensated OK.

Ouch! “Great.” “Wonderful.” “OK.” One of these things is not like the others.

Whatever the reason, the Macalope applauds the ultimate decision.

Well, assuming it is the ultimate decision.

Maynor goes for a do-over

David Maynor demos crashing a Mac.

The Macalope was supposed to have a week off and then this has to happen:

David Maynor demoed crashing a MacBook at Black Hat DC.

“I screwed up a bit [at last year’s Black Hat in Las Vegas]. I probably shouldn’t have used an Apple machine in the video demo and I definitely should not have discussed it a journalist ahead of time,” Maynor said in an interview after his demo.

“I made mistakes, I screwed up. You can blame me for a lot of things but don’t say we didn’t find this and give all the information to Apple.”

Glenn Fleishman has more.

Can't hear your utopian vision over the sound of my iPod.

Some response to Cory Doctorow’s piece in Salon.

Cory Doctorow takes his cardboard sign that says “DRM-ER, REPENT!” to Salon today to harangue you mindless sheeple who continue to buy iPods.

Tsk. You idiots.

Doctorow doesn’t believe Steve Jobs when he says he’d drop DRM in a hearbeat if the recording companies would let him, saying Apple is enjoying the benefits of locking customers into iTunes. If Jobs is serious, he asks, why won’t Apple sell songs from artists who own their own music and want it to be sold DRM-free? Why are some podcasts DRMed and some DRM-free? Why has Apple always sold Pixar movies with DRM? Why was Apple’s first pitch to the music companies to sell DRM-free music?

Whoops, he didn’t say that last one.

To be sure, though, Jobs is only talking about music. No one is under any illusions that the movie business is going to budge one inch. The Macalope will stipulate that there is a bizarre inconsistency in the treatment of the two media. One’s DRM is under attack, the other’s is not.

Mr. Gruber has opined here on whether or not Apple would offer both DRMed and DRM-free music and the Macalope agrees with his analysis – it’s going to take some critical mass to get Apple to do it (not just a smattering of indy bands), but if one of the companies says “OK”, Apple better come through.

As for podcasts being offered both ways, it is an inconsistency, but consumers of podcasts are almost certainly more aware of what the heck DRM is in the first place.

Doctorow does make some good points but, as usual for him with this subject, he’s so wound up about it that he keeps heading off into la-la-koo-koo crazy-bananas land to make sure you know how bad DRM is.

Apple may have created a successful “Switch” campaign by reverse-engineering Microsoft products like PowerPoint to make Keynote, an Apple program that lets you run old PowerPoint decks on your Mac, but Microsoft can’t create a “Switch to the Zune” campaign that offers you the ability to play your iTunes Store songs on a Zune, Microsoft’s latest abortive iPod-killer.

What? Apple’s “Switch” campaign is based on getting PowerPoint files to open in Keynote? Since when? Apple’s own “Get A Mac” ads actually reference the Mac version of Microsoft Office, not iWork.

The Macalope knows Doctorow is trying to compare Microsoft’s lock on office applications to Apple’s lock on digital music, but it’s a rather tortured comparison. Even MP3s are not editable in the way a PowerPoint presentation is.

Not only won’t your iTunes Store music play on those devices, it’s illegal to try to get it to play on those devices.

Doctorow doesn’t say it explicitely, but he seems to be implying that even burning an audio CD of your iTunes Store purchases and re-ripping them as MP3s is illegal under the DCMA. The Macalope has never heard that before and is inclined to think that’s not true, but he wouldn’t be completely surprised to find out it is. You would have to re-enter all the metadata and for a large number of tracks that’s going to be a huge pain in the ass.

Doctorow then plays his Apple street cred card again.

I’m a lifelong Apple fan boy — I have an actual Mac tattoo…

That’s cute. As long as we’re whipping it out and comparing sizes here, the Macalope feels compelled to point out that he has a head actually shaped like a Mac.

So… you know…

Beeeotch…

If you rip your own CDs and load them onto your iPod, you’ll notice something curious.

The iPod is a roach motel: Songs check in, but they don’t check out. Once you put music on your iPod, you can’t get it off again with Apple’s software. No recovering your music collection off your iPod if your hard drive crashes.

So now the complaint is that the iPod isn’t an archival device? Well, it’s probably good you’ve got the CDs, then.

The Macalope thinks the real concern would be your iTunes-purchased music and those files can be copied off your iPod and onto another machine. Frankly, the Macalope doesn’t understand why Apple restricts this feature to iTunes-purchased songs. Probably at the behest of the recording industry which assumes any MP3s you have on your iPod must have been stolen in the first place.

What’s more, Apple prevents copying indiscriminately. You can’t copy any music off your iPod.

Not technically true as you can sync your purchases to another authorized machine. But, yes, you can’t copy them off individually.

Apple even applies the no-copying measure to audio released under a Creative Commons license (for example, my own podcasts), which prohibits adding DRM. The Creative Commons situation is inexcusable; because Creative Commons licenses are machine-readable, iTunes could automatically find the C.C.-licensed works and make them available for copying back to your computer.

Apple has “locked” the iPod so you can’t copy any non-DRMed content synced with iTunes off of it, but the files themselves have not been DRMed. You can copy them from machine to machine a variety of other ways, including using the iPod as a hard drive. It’s a rather stupid encumberance, but it’s not exactly keeping people from copying Creative Commons works. It’s really just saying you can’t use iTunes to do it and if you want to play it and copy it, you have to put it on there twice.

Stupid, yes. Evil? Only if you’re incredibly pedantic about DRM.

Videos you buy from the iTunes Store can only be watched on Apple’s products. So every movie you buy from Apple is a tax down the line of switching from Apple to a competing product.

The Macalope’s got to go with him here. This is a piss-poor situation engendered by the recording industry’s ability years ago to control how DVDs and DVD players were designed. The least the industry and Apple could do is allow customers to burn them to a fixed number of DVDs.

Conceptually, spyware and DRM have the same goals: to do something to your computer that you don’t want to happen.

Oh, please. It’s crap like this that makes Doctorow so unbearable on this issue. Does the Macalope need to point out the difference between consensual sex — albeit with someone who you fear may end up being too clingy but, hey, they’re right there and they’re willing and you wouldn’t even have to get up off of the couch or possibly even move — and, well, getting raped?

At the end of the day, DRM is the biggest impediment to a legitimate music market. Apple doesn’t sell music because of DRM — it sells music in spite of DRM.

Indeed.

Doctorow’s strident war against DRM certainly has a goal the Macalope agrees with. But while the horny one is not naive about the motivations behind Jobs’ statement, he also doesn’t think Doctorow helps his own case by stretching the truth to try to scare the kiddies about Apple’s DRM.

Monkeys flinging their own poo

Enderle and some other nitwit have no compunctions about talking out their asses.

Apple TKOs Cisco in iPhone bout, analysts say.

As part of the settlement, all legal action on both sides has been dismissed, but the rest of the arrangement’s details remain confidential.

[Emphasis the Macalope’s.]

That didn’t stop analysts familiar with Apple, Cisco and the iPhone brouhaha from speculating on who won and, more important, who lost at the negotiation table.

EEEE-EEEEE-EEEE! OH-HA-HA-HA!

“The rule in Silicon Valley is that if Apple leaves the table smiling, the other guy got screwed,” said Rob Enderle, an independent analyst and principal of the Enderle Group.

OOH-OOH-OOH-OOH!

Roger Kay, of Endpoint Technologies Associates, agreed. “It certainly looks like Cisco gave away the store.”

OOH-HA-HA-HA-HOOOOOOOO!

Both Enderle and Kay said their take was based on the clear value of the iPhone name, and the vague interoperability promises made in the statement. “I’m not convinced that Cisco got what it wanted out of this,” said Enderle. In the past, he added, Apple has made promises to partners that it didn’t keep. “That’s been a history of deals with Apple. The partner always regrets it.”

OOH-HA-HA! EEE-EEE-EEE! OOH-OOH-OOH!

As usual, Enderle is talking out of orifices that were not meant for such purposes.

Cisco clearly could not have given a rat’s ass about the iPhone trademark. It Photoshopped the name on existing products to try to give the illusion that it had great big plans for it. Then it happily came to an agreement with a company that was going to put it on a landmark product that will turn Cisco’s use of the trademark into a footnote. A brief anachronism.

Do not, dear readers, shed a single tear over poor Cisco. The Macalope doesn’t know the terms of the deal any more than Enderle does, but whatever it got, it was adequately compensated for half an hour of Photoshopping.

iPhone, youPhone, we all use "iPhone"

Apple and Cisco make a deal.

Apple and Cisco make a deal (Wall Street Journal subscription-only).

Under the agreement, both companies are free to use the trademark on their products globally and acknowledge the trademark ownership rights that have been granted. Each side will dismiss any pending actions regarding the trademark.

iPhones for everyone!

ADDENDUM: The Macalope would just like to add that this was really a silly thing to worry about. Does anyone really care what the Apple phone was called, as long as it wasn’t called the Apple Portable Communications Device for Business Or Personal Use Brought To You By Cingular, The Greatest Phone Company Ever?

The Macalope never found time to delve into Brier Dudley’s column last week, but one of the standout moments was Dudley coming down with a case of the vapors over Steve Jobs’ lack of concern for U.S. trademark protection.

In just over a month, he’s been flippant about U.S. trademark protection, accounting standards, securities regulators and European antitrust enforcers.

After ignoring Cisco’s trademark on the term “iPhone,” Apple called the resulting lawsuit “silly.”

The Macalope is relieved to see that our great nation survived this month-long crisis.

Grand Theft Options

Founder of game company pleads guilty in options scandal.

(Sure, sure, you could see that one coming up De Anza Blvd.)

Ryan Brant, the founder and former CEO and Chairman of Take-Two, makers of Grand Theft Auto, pleads guilty to illegally covering up the backdating of options.

For those of us on Jobs options watch, there are some disturbing results here. Not only was Brant fined, but he was barred from every holding a top office at a publicly traded company again.

However, the charges were considerably different than what Jobs was involved in.

The SEC and New York prosecutors accused Brant of awarding himself 10 backdated option grants from 1997 to 2003 for a total of about 2.1 million shares of Take-Two stock, all of which he exercised before resigning from the company in October.

Looks like Brant will avoid jail, sparing himself the uncomfortable irony of having to do time with actual car-jackers.