There seems to be a bit of disagreement over Vista’s launch and what it means for Mac market share.
According to Information Week, at least two analysts think it’s an opportunity for Apple.
“We think Vista is good for Apple,” ThinkEquity Partners financial analyst Jonathan Hoopes says in an e-mail. “As people upgrade their PCs, we expect them to increasingly consider the Mac alternative.”
That’s pretty much what the Macalope’s been saying. Vista forces many PC users into a buying decision.
But Paul Thurrott last week advised against such irrational exuberance.
In fact, there are reasons to believe that PC sales will grow dramatically in this very quarter because of Vista’s release. So it’s much more believable to think that Apple’s market share will actually be closer to 3 percent, or even less.
However, I’d argue that Vista is quite obviously a threat to Apple because it further closes the gap between Windows and OS X in the eyes of the world (and, in reality, Vista exceeds OS X in many areas). And one might make the argument that Vista is good enough to cause some Mac users to switch back to Windows.
Up? Down? It’s all so confusing! Who are you gonna trust?
Well, if you’re the Macalope (and you’re not)*, you’re going to trust Hoopes. Sure, Thurrott’s right that no one should count their chickens before they hatch but this isn’t poultry, it’s prediction.
Now, the Macalope’s been burned before and, while it’s tempting, he’s resisting the urge to put any stock in his own anecdotal evidence that his relatives, friends and acquaintances are increasingly asking him “Now, tell me about these ‘Macs’ again?”.
Why? Because he tends to hang out with remarkably charming, erudite, witty, intelligent and sexy people. In other words, even if they’re currently PC users, they already fit nicely into the Mac user demographic, so they’re probably not representative of the PC-using population as a whole.
That said, there’s no denying that Microsoft made a strategic error in giving itself five years to get Vista out the door. Now it’s coming back to it’s customers and saying “Hey! Remember me?! I sold you that OS you’re using five years ago? Yeah, well, I’ve got a new one now and you’re going to have to buy a new machine to run it but I’ve got this great wizard that will step you through all the different versions to help you pick which one is right for you!”
It’s hardly irrational to speculate that Microsoft might get a few doors slammed in its face.
The Macalope will do Thurrott the courtesy of not even replying to his speculation about users switching from the Mac to Vista.
* Or are you?!