Net Applications has revised their statistics (which the Macalope used below even though he doesn’t take them as anything close to the final word on real market share) to better weight for country, and Vista’s share of the Windows market drops to about 20% (tip o’ the antlers to Adrian Kingsley-Hughes who notes that Safari and the Mac also lost significant share). So, where the Macalope said 65% of Windows users will have a hard upgrade? Make that 80%.
The change in share is presumably because more Vista adopters were in the U.S. and Net Applications considered their previous weighting too U.S.-centric. So, what the revised numbers seem to say is that there are more early adopters in the U.S. than countries like China, which they are now weighting more heavily, which isn’t surprising.
It’ll be interesting to see how the companies affected take this information and spin it.
Prediction: they’ll ignore it. All of them. They’ll continue to focus on growth and bottom line. Who really cares about overall market share? The trends continue to be good for everyone but Microsoft.