Jackassery, thy name is Enderle
Let’s do this thing.
Rob predicts a bad year for Apple (when has he not?) and thinks the iPhone’s not going to help.
It comes in at a nosebleed price…
It is on the high end, but did you see the interface on that thing? Holy crap.
…it has really lousy estimated battery life…
Well, it’s all relative, isn’t it? What other combination video iPod, cell phone and computer with a robust web browser, email client and media management system has a better battery life?
Oh, that’s right…
…it uses the aging 2.5G wireless network…
Aging and ubiquitous.
…and both the hardware and the OS on it are relatively new — read probably buggy.
Well, sure. There are going to be bugs at first.
Is that all you got, Rob?
Because the iPhone is still months off, many who might have otherwise purchased an iPod in the first half of the year will likely hold and wait to see this thing before they purchase.
When they will purchase either an iPod or an iPhone. So some sales may get deferred, but not lost.
But what are they waiting for, exactly? The iPod part is the known quantity. It’s the phone part people might be unsure of. If anything the Macalope thinks people are going to hold off on their phone purchases.
Now, readers, you may want to wrap an Ace bandage or some cellophane around your head before you read the next paragraph, just to keep it from exploding.
That should put a drag on iPod sales on top of what typically comes after a really good quarter — and its fourth quarter 2006 was a really good quarter. A lot of folks have new iPods as a result, and these people won’t be buying new ones anytime soon.
Yes, this is Rob Enderle’s special alchemy: spinning good news for Apple as bad news for Apple. How does he do it?!
But, congratulations, Rob. You’ve discovered cyclicality.
Even if you have completely misunderstood it.
In addition, this is Vista launch. Regardless of whether folks flock to Vista, the massive marketing campaign will probably drown out anything Apple does and make it difficult to maintain sales.
Just like CES drowned out Macworld.
And, remember, when you’re trying to make a point it’s only necessary to discuss how one company’s initial release of something will have bugs.
Oh, and that company’s name should always be “Apple.”
If the company had rolled out Leopard or some new hardware to fight back with at MacWorld [sic], it might have held on. Such was not the case, though, and that means Apple will have an aging operating system on aging hardware that probably won’t get the needed refresh until mid-year if Apple hits it dates — and given the lack of Leopard content at MacWorld [sic], the company probably won’t hit its dates.
“It might have held on”? Right. Someone cue Ed Harris yelling at Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio in The Abyss.
And “aging operating system”? Tiger will be all of 2 when Leopard is released. How old is XP again?
It’s very clear that the lack of Leopard content at Macworld (still a small “w”, thank you very much!) was an effort to drum up the iPhone, not to disrespect the Mac.
But, shh. Rob’s just gettin’ rollin’ now. Right over a cliff.
Speculation that Steve Jobs will take a leave of absence is continuing to spread.
Rob, the unsubstantiated rumor you link to was from before the keynote and was widely speculated to have been spread by jackasses looking to influence Apple’s stock price so they could buy low and sell high. Your decision to include it in your supposedly serious analysis is why you are the laughing stock of the Apple community.
Even if he doesn’t leave to fight the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), the distraction the broadening investigation is going to have on the executive staff and board will be a huge problem.
Not according to several Wall Street analysts who may yet prove wrong but whose opinions the Macalope would take over yours on topics ranging from “Apple, Inc.” to “how to spell ‘Enderle'”.
There is nothing like going to court against the strongest networking and the strongest telecom hardware company at the same time to keep folks distracted from what they otherwise should be doing.
Since when does Apple’s legal team design or market its products? And, you know, it’s not exactly like Apple’s never been sued before. The “iPhone” spat may end up being expensive and the company may take it on anyway for branding continuity, but no matter what the Apple phone is called when it’s released, it will still smell as awesome.
Apple is clearly not going away — but this year, compared to last, will be really nasty for the company.
Well, actually, the Macalope expects that this year may be harder than last year. But “really nasty”? You wish.